Whenever I think of how slowly I'm growing my subscribers, I remember two things.
One, I need to be grateful for what I have. Even though there is that rush whenever I gain subscribers sequentially for a period of time before things begin to slow down, it's still amazing how there are people out there who willingly subscribe to read my work.
Two is exponential growth. I won't take credit for this thought, as I read it in James Clear's book "Atomic Habits", but it's one of my motivational boosters for staying constant in the posting schedule. Even though I have not reached thousands of subscribers, it might take just one month of effort to reach that number through exponential growth. The key is to keep on trying, no matter the struggle.
I love how authentic this is and as someone who works on numbers all day too, I think the forecasts are realistic. Substack is surely a long game to play! I am currently in stage 2 and absolutely loving it! Thank you for this✨
Martin, this is a really good analysis, but I disagree with two aspects, or maybe 'disagree' is too strong a word because it's all a matter of personal preference, but here goes:
1. I think if someone is going to go paid they should do it straight away, otherwise they're potentially leaving money on the table. Even just one subscriber at, say £50 pa, is enough to pay for a personal domain name, if that's what someone wants. Also, you're setting out your stall and expectations straight away. Perhaps it's just me, but I feel a bit used when a Substacker announces something to the effect, "Thanks a bunch to everyone who has subscribed. I'm now going to put half or more of my stuff, along with all the comments you folks have made, behind a paywall".
2. I also think that people should build up a portfolio of writing work. As Nassism Nicholas Taleb would probably say, the past doesn't dictate the future. What I mean is, although it seems unlikely right now, we don't know whether or not next week or next year Substack will be sold to someone who completely changes its possibilities. That sort of thing has happened time and again with many different platforms. So part of my approach is to continue to write elsewhere (such as magazines) and do other things, like teach, That means I have less time to build Substack up as quickly as I might, but it also means that I have a bit of a cushion against Substack going belly up!
I'm at the end of the first season with more than 100 subscribers to my main newsletter. My current subscriber growth per month is about 45. I don't know when to turn on paid. I'm thinking of going with a 50-50 model where half of the post will be paid and half will be free.
For phase 1, I think it will take longer. I'd say at least 6 months of weekly posts, alongside the notes. Especially since Substack added followers which make it harder to gain subscribers via notes.
Hi Martin. This feels very reasonable and realistic. No pie in the sky, fairy tale promises or goals that would be a stretch even for someone who started with a built-in audience. The majority of us on here are what you've based your assumption on--normal people, with no imported email list, large social media following, etc. I would say these are all fair assumptions. Plus, imagine the kick ass writer you'll be after 10 years writing consistently and honing your voice with your newsletter. It's going to be fun to look back on some of our newsletters to see how far we've come. Congrats on hitting your 1000 subscriber mark.
Very interesting and realistic. I especially appreciate your projection that part time income isn't a matter of months, not even a year or two, but around 5 years!
I’m thankful for the handful of subscribers I have. I feel I have the luxury of trying different things (post vs podcasts and soon videos), hone my style and voice without a lot of pressure to “be perfect”. I’m writing about a popular subject from a different point of view so I didn’t expect subscribers to pour in. Just trying to enjoy the journey…for now. LOL!
This is really useful, thank you so much. Often it's easy to forget that early stage, all too eager to get to the end goal. I will be saving this as a reminder to keep myself on track and referring back often I am sure.
Very much enjoyed this read. As a relative Substack newbie, it makes sense to see the timeline being as long as it is. Lots of work but also a lot of fun! Thank you!
Whenever I think of how slowly I'm growing my subscribers, I remember two things.
One, I need to be grateful for what I have. Even though there is that rush whenever I gain subscribers sequentially for a period of time before things begin to slow down, it's still amazing how there are people out there who willingly subscribe to read my work.
Two is exponential growth. I won't take credit for this thought, as I read it in James Clear's book "Atomic Habits", but it's one of my motivational boosters for staying constant in the posting schedule. Even though I have not reached thousands of subscribers, it might take just one month of effort to reach that number through exponential growth. The key is to keep on trying, no matter the struggle.
Well i must be doing something wrong because it took me over a year to reach 100 subscribers!
This was such an insightful read Martin!
I love how authentic this is and as someone who works on numbers all day too, I think the forecasts are realistic. Substack is surely a long game to play! I am currently in stage 2 and absolutely loving it! Thank you for this✨
Martin, this is a really good analysis, but I disagree with two aspects, or maybe 'disagree' is too strong a word because it's all a matter of personal preference, but here goes:
1. I think if someone is going to go paid they should do it straight away, otherwise they're potentially leaving money on the table. Even just one subscriber at, say £50 pa, is enough to pay for a personal domain name, if that's what someone wants. Also, you're setting out your stall and expectations straight away. Perhaps it's just me, but I feel a bit used when a Substacker announces something to the effect, "Thanks a bunch to everyone who has subscribed. I'm now going to put half or more of my stuff, along with all the comments you folks have made, behind a paywall".
2. I also think that people should build up a portfolio of writing work. As Nassism Nicholas Taleb would probably say, the past doesn't dictate the future. What I mean is, although it seems unlikely right now, we don't know whether or not next week or next year Substack will be sold to someone who completely changes its possibilities. That sort of thing has happened time and again with many different platforms. So part of my approach is to continue to write elsewhere (such as magazines) and do other things, like teach, That means I have less time to build Substack up as quickly as I might, but it also means that I have a bit of a cushion against Substack going belly up!
Thank you for these insights! 👏
Ten years might seem like a long time, it actually it’s not a bad retirement plan.
Something to aim for! 😃🤞
Great read, Martin!
I'm at the end of the first season with more than 100 subscribers to my main newsletter. My current subscriber growth per month is about 45. I don't know when to turn on paid. I'm thinking of going with a 50-50 model where half of the post will be paid and half will be free.
For phase 1, I think it will take longer. I'd say at least 6 months of weekly posts, alongside the notes. Especially since Substack added followers which make it harder to gain subscribers via notes.
I did the quick maths and to replace my salary like for like with annual subscribers, it actually wasn't as many as I thought!
Hi Martin. This feels very reasonable and realistic. No pie in the sky, fairy tale promises or goals that would be a stretch even for someone who started with a built-in audience. The majority of us on here are what you've based your assumption on--normal people, with no imported email list, large social media following, etc. I would say these are all fair assumptions. Plus, imagine the kick ass writer you'll be after 10 years writing consistently and honing your voice with your newsletter. It's going to be fun to look back on some of our newsletters to see how far we've come. Congrats on hitting your 1000 subscriber mark.
Very interesting and realistic. I especially appreciate your projection that part time income isn't a matter of months, not even a year or two, but around 5 years!
Thanks for putting this together, Martin. It's interesting to see the stages laid out like this.
Are there more fluctuations - subscribe & unsubscribe after the recent 'followers' boost, and would that impact the numbers above?
Given my mission to reach out to as many caregivers/readers as possible, the new 'followers' view has been eye-opening!
I’m thankful for the handful of subscribers I have. I feel I have the luxury of trying different things (post vs podcasts and soon videos), hone my style and voice without a lot of pressure to “be perfect”. I’m writing about a popular subject from a different point of view so I didn’t expect subscribers to pour in. Just trying to enjoy the journey…for now. LOL!
This is really useful, thank you so much. Often it's easy to forget that early stage, all too eager to get to the end goal. I will be saving this as a reminder to keep myself on track and referring back often I am sure.
Hi. This is really interesting and helpful. Can I just ask about the part 4 and 5 figures as there seems to be done repetition?
Very much enjoyed this read. As a relative Substack newbie, it makes sense to see the timeline being as long as it is. Lots of work but also a lot of fun! Thank you!
I appreciate the direction and suggestions. I like your approach of building rapport and relationships. I'm following along!